FP&A and Forecasting
Planning, budgeting, and forecasting built on drivers, so the numbers guide decisions instead of just recording them.
Our view
A forecast is only useful if people trust it and act on it. Most planning fails because it is built on last year's numbers plus a growth rate, disconnected from the drivers that actually move revenue, cost, and cash. We rebuild planning around those drivers, so the model explains what is happening and shows what to do about it, and so leadership can finally see the cash runway clearly.
When this is the work
When the forecast misses and no one trusts the budget.
Planning has become a spreadsheet ritual rather than a decision tool, and leadership cannot see the cash runway clearly. We rebuild it around the drivers that actually move the business.
- Forecasts miss and the budget is not trusted
- Planning is a ritual, not a decision tool
- The cash runway is not clearly visible
The Ore to Edge Discipline
The same three-phase discipline on every engagement, adapted to the demands of this work. See the full discipline.
Assay and refine
- Partner: map the real drivers of revenue, cost, and cash
- Collect: the external sensitivities that move them
- Synthesize: a driver tree that ties activity to outcome
A driver map of what actually moves results
Alloy and form
- Build a driver-based model with scenario and sensitivity analysis
- Stand up a rolling 13-week cash flow
- Set targets and the variance thresholds that trigger action
A model leadership can run scenarios on in minutes
Forge and hone
- Install the planning cadence and the reporting
- Re-forecast on variance, not on the calendar
A live dashboard and rolling forecast that flag shifts early
What you get
Planning that leadership actually uses.
- A driver-based model you can run scenarios on
- A rolling forecast and a clear cash runway
- A planning cadence tied to decisions
Common questions
FP&A and Forecasting, in plain terms.
What is the difference between FP&A and accounting?
Accounting records what already happened. FP&A looks forward: it builds the plan, the forecast, and the analysis that guide decisions about where the business is going. One keeps the books; the other helps you steer.
What makes a forecast driver-based?
A driver-based forecast is built from the operational inputs that actually move results, such as units, price, headcount, and conversion, rather than from a single top-line growth assumption. When a driver changes, the forecast updates, which is what makes it a decision tool instead of a static budget.
How often should we re-forecast?
On change, not on the calendar. A fixed quarterly ritual misses what moved in between. We set variance thresholds that trigger a re-forecast when the business actually shifts, so the numbers stay current without becoming busywork.
Do we need new software for this?
Usually not at first. Most companies get further by fixing the structure and the drivers in the tools they already have. We recommend a dedicated planning platform only when complexity genuinely warrants it.
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