Insights

Community Banking · June 8, 2026

Florida's Property Tax Collision with Regional Banks

On June 2, 2026, the Florida Legislature voted to send a property-tax phase-out to the November ballot. This shift introduces unmodeled, concentrated risks to Florida community banks.

Florida Property-Tax Series, Part 1 of 6

Risk & Governance · June 12, 2026

Deposits, Funding, and the Loan-to-Deposit Squeeze

If Florida's property-tax amendment passes, the deposits most at risk are the cheapest a community bank holds: public and operating funds, and tax escrow.

Florida Property-Tax Series, Part 2 of 6

Risk & Governance · June 19, 2026

The Credit Channel: How the Tax Shift Reaches Your Loan Book

The funding hit is the obvious risk. The credit hit is the one almost no one is modeling, and for a community bank it may be the larger of the two.

Florida Property-Tax Series, Part 3 of 6

Risk & Governance · June 26, 2026

The Backfill Problem: Where the Money Comes From and What It Breaks

With no state trust fund to replace the lost revenue, Florida's local governments will have to find the money somewhere. The levers they reach for break other things.

Florida Property-Tax Series, Part 4 of 6

Risk & Governance · July 3, 2026

Municipal and Pension Fiscal Stress, and the Securities Book

The revenue loss does not stop at the operating account. It reaches the pension plans local governments are obligated to fund and the municipal bonds banks hold.

Florida Property-Tax Series, Part 5 of 6

Community Banking · July 10, 2026

The Boom and the Echo Boom: The Rewards, Honestly Weighed

Five pieces of risk deserve one piece of reward, told straight. Florida's property-tax change would put real money in homeowners' pockets and unfreeze a housing market.

Florida Property-Tax Series, Part 6 of 6

Community Banking · June 6, 2026

David vs. Goliaths: How Regional Banks Can Compete Against Scale and Subsidy

A regional bank today stands in front of two giants: national banks with massive technology budgets and credit unions with tax-exempt subsidies. The durable strategy is to stop fighting on their terms.

Geopolitics · May 8, 2026

Chokepoint Economics: How the Strait of Hormuz Became Washington's Most Powerful Lever

A comprehensive analysis of US strategic intent, agricultural cascade effects by crop and season, the collapsing Russia oil discount, scenario planning across critical maritime corridors, and actionable market implications across a 12–36 month horizon.

Investment Governance · May 26, 2026

Three Disciplines of Institutional Portfolio Oversight

Investment advisory, properly understood, is judgment work. Performance reporting is the input, not the output. A framework drawn from a board-commissioned review of two institutional portfolios.